DeRosa to Cards

The fire sale has begun. Was hoping to get a little more for DeRosa, but Chris Perez is a very good arm that can help the bullpen right now. Must have been a lot harder to get a Casey Blake like haul then it was last year.

I haven't yet seen who the player-to-be-named might be, but in Chris Perez the Indians get a power bullpen arm who has been a closer in both the minors and majors. I have to believe that this deal now forshadows a future Kerry Wood deal (as long as he hasn't destroyed his value this year). Chris Perez tends to walk too many hitters but as soon as he steps on the field with the Indians he may well be the best pitcher in the pen (I still think it is Kerry Wood, but he is making it hard to defend that).

Who's next?

Time for some LaPorta?

How much more time do we need to figure out that maybe Ben Francisco is better suited to be a fourth outfielder? In his major league career he is .261/.324/.431 in 713 at-bats and .291/.357/.459 in his minor league career. If you are going to hit like that then you better have a darn good glove at a premium position. Problem is that Francisco is not all that great with the glove.

Fangraphs description of Francisco:

Despite a hot stretch in 2008, Ben Francisco's career so far has reeked of 'tweener.' He lacks the range to play center field on a regular basis and he lacks the pop in his bat to perform regularly at the corner outfield positions. In 2008, the outfielder posted a triple-slash line of .266/.332/.438 with 15 home runs in 447 at-bats. This season, he's hitting just .245/.311/.392 with five home runs in 204 at-bats. At the age of 27, there is not much upside, although with a BABIP of .290 and a line-drive rate of 20%, we could see some modest improvements on the triple-slash line.

Isn’t it time to give left-field to Matt LaPorta (career .293/.383/.571 minor league hitter with 42 homeruns and 129 RBI)? Problem is, of course, LaPorta is a really a first-baseman masquerading as an outfielder to fit a need. I have little doubt that LaPorta, if given a real shot, could come in today and out hit Ben Francisco. But how big would the drop off in the field be? It is a question the Indians need to figure out. If there is a run to be made the Indians need to put their best players on the field and Ben Francisco is not one of them.

Getting Sizemore and Cabrera back from injuries and adding LaPorta to the lineup will be like trading for three pieces. If only we had three or four LaPorta like pitching prospect in the minors to replace our rotation.

That was bad

Last night could have been a big game for the Indians. Could have gotten within 5.5 games of the Tigers with a win, instead they lose five run leads twice and are now 6.5 games out.

Good news from the game, the offense was very good. Travis Hafner looks like the same player he was before going on the DL and is looking more like the 2006 version than the 2008. With Choo, Martinez and Hafner in the middle of the order and Sizemore and Cabrera returning in the next couple weeks, the Indians have as good an offense as there is in the American League.

Bad news from the game, the pitching continues to be awful. I think it was just last week I was proclaiming Carl Pavano to be a solid number two starter. Since then he has gone 9.2 IP and given up 15 earned runs. Way to make me look bad Pavano. Also, just when I was starting to trust the bullpen they have one of their classic meltdowns. They were truly awful last night.

Come trade deadline time if the Indians are still no where near contention they need to make serious efforts to bring in pitching help for the future. DeRosa is the most obvious chip to trade but won’t likely bring any top talent (though I thought the same about Blake last season). With Santana on the way one of the catchers needs to go. Shoppach would be the easiest to live without but like DeRosa won’t bring much. The haul would have to be huge for me to agree with trading Martinez and I imagine the Indians could get some major impact players in return. What about Hafner? With David Ortiz player better of late I don’t see a lot of possible destinations that make sense. The Angels need another bat but Vlad doesn’t seem to be able to play in the field anymore. No player should be complete off limits to trade, but Sizemore and Cliff Lee should be the only ones close to untradeable.

Still have over a month to be thinking about the trade deadline. If we can make a run once Grady, Asdrubal and Jake Westbrook (I have some pretty big doubts he will be effective) get back maybe we can be buyers at the deadline. Stranger things have happened.

The Last of the 300 Game Winners

So after Randy Johnson won his 300th game last week I have heard over and over the notion that he will be the last 300 game winner we will see. The arguments always center on the fact that we now have five man rotations and specialized relievers (the official talking points on yesterday’s Sports Reporters).

I would like to point out to everyone that Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine all came from the era of the five man rotation and specialized relievers. Why are these guys the only ones we will see get 300 wins?

Randy did pitch a lot of innings some seasons (93: 255.1, 99: 271.2) but so has C.C. (241, 253, 253 last three season) and Roy Halladay (03: 266, 08: 246). Sabathia had more complete games last season than Glavine ever had during his career. Sabathia has more wins (117) than Maddux (115), Glavine (95) or Johnson (44) had through their age 27 season (Halladay at 67). Halladay through his age 32 season (current season) has more victories (141) than Johnson (111) with a much better win percentage (.678 to .590).

The key to winning 300 games is pitching a long time. Glavine and Johnson each pitched (at least so far) in 22 seasons and Maddux in 23. Give C.C. or Halladay or Oswalt or Strasburg 22-23 season and someone will get to or be close to 300 wins. Five man rotations and specialized relievers make it harder but don’t eliminate the possibility of another 300 game winner.

Optimistic Monday

The A.L. Central is really bad. As bad as the Indians have played and with all the injury problems they are still only 7 games back. Detroit is on pace to win 88 games, which seems like a pretty good estimate as to the number of games it is going to take to win the Central. Which means the Indians need to go 63-40 (.615) the rest of the way. Is that doable? Probably not, but there are some things to be optimistic about.

Currently the Indians are fourth in the AL in runs scored. This is without Travis Hafner for much of the year, an injured Grady Sizemore, and terrible hitting from Shoppach and Peralta. Choo, Martinez and Cabrera have been very good this season (and each a bit lucky as well: .362, .358, .382 BABIP respectively). If we can get Cabrera and Sizemore back healthy in a few weeks and possibly give LaPorta a real chance the offense could be even better.

Of course, pitching has been the big problem this season. Where is the optimism? Well, Huff did pitch better yesterday and could be a solid contributor the rest of the way. Since the beginning of May, Carl Pavano has pitched like it’s 2003. Cliff Lee continues to show that he is a staff ace. Our 4^th and 5^th starters will continue to haunt us. The bullpen continues to get better (hard not too) and may end up being a plus down the stretch. Betancourt is walking too many hitters (like most of the Indians) but has looked a million times better than last season.

Pessimism will likely get the best of me by tomorrow, but for today I actually think the Indians still have a chance in the Central.

What's wrong with Grady?

Grady thus far hasn’t looked very good - .227/.313/.424. This includes 36 Ks in 31 games and being caught stealing five times in ten attempts. Are we just seeing an extremely bad stretch for Sizemore or should we be concerned?

Last week I pointed out that so far he has been a bit unlucky (.267 BABIP); with Friday night’s stolen home run as exhibit A. A further look at his splits shows something very strange: Sizemore is hitting rather well against lefties (.250/.386/.500 – though 4 of his 5 CS against lefties) and rather terrible against righties (.219/.283/.326). This is in sharp contrast to career rates of .239/.331/.396 (lefties) and .294/.384/.529 (righties).

Unless there is an injury we are not aware of, better days are most definitely ahead of us. Sizemore will once again start mashing righties (and maybe continue to hit lefties well). He will put a little bit of luck together and AL pitchers will remember fondly these terrible few weeks. (But I still don’t think the Indians are any good this year.)

As an aside, maybe it is time to move Sizemore down in the order. Cabrera has look quite good at getting on-base. My main argument for leaving Sizemore in the leadoff spot has always been that there wasn’t anyone in the lineup capable of getting on-base like him. If we now have that player then it is time to move Grady into a power spot in the order.

It's time to worry

Haven’t posted much these first few frustrating weeks. There hasn’t been a whole lot that has gone right for the Indians yet this season and are not past the point where things can just be chalked up to early season rust.

Going into the season, the bullpen was the one thing I had the most confidence in and it has been the most terrible of all things. Vinnie Chulk and Tony Sipp are the only bullpen arms with an ERA under 4.5 on the season. Kerry Wood and Joe Smith, the two big offseason additions, have ERAs of 7.20 and 7.11 respectively. Wood is still striking out 14.4 per 9 innings, so the ERA may be a fluke right now; he also has an amazing .450 BABIP (small sample sizes will do that).

In the rotation, we needed Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona to make huge contribution. Lee has been OK, but is getting hit a bit much (.313 average); though some of that is due to a high BABIP of .364. Carmona has been bad; he is letting far too many hitter get on base to be successful. Unsurprising to anyone, the rest of the rotation has also been bad. Aaron Laffey gave a couple good performances, which of course earned him a trip to the bullpen (go figure).

I don’t think either the bullpen or rotation could actually get worse, so maybe we can look forward to better times ahead of us.

Offensively it hasn’t been much better; they have scored 158 runs (tied for 4^th in AL) but they seem to be very boom or bust. Victor Martinez has been the star, but has also been rather lucky with a .390 BABIP. Sizemore has been bad (.233/.321/.450) and unlucky (.265 BABIP). Travis Hafner looked like his old self out of the gates, but just like the last couple years is again having shoulder problems. If Sizemore and Peralta can get things straightened out and either Hafner comes back or LaPorta replaces his stats, we could be in pretty good shape.

The problem being that the Indians are already 7 games back in the Central. They have once again dug themselves a huge hole to start the season; which is one of Wedge’s specialties. I have to believe Wedge and his coaching staff are on very thin ice right now. Shapiro has already made a number of roster moves (LaPorta, Laffey, Sowers, Sipp, Perez) and now Wedge has to get things going.

Where do we go from here? 89 games should be a good estimate to win the Central this season. Which means the Indians will need to go 78-55 (.590) the rest of the way. Is that doable? From what I have seen thus far, it seems like a stretch.